Monday, September 28, 2009
Lesson to learn...and to learn early in the season
Every season in fantasy football, I overanalyze my starters and their matchups for the week. In week 2, I was mulling over which QB to start; Kurt Warner v. Colts (who played 45 mins of defense against Dolphins in MNF in week 1) or Joe Flacco v. Browns (who just plainly stink). I originally went with the better MATCHUP with Flacco, instead of Warner who I originally drafted to assume my team's position of starting QB week in and week out. However, when I woke up an hour before the 10am kickoff, I had the overanalysis jones kicking in. I found Roland online and I consulted him for advice. He advised me to "always start your original starter." He is in the philosophy that you must start your #1 QB no matter the matchup, unless hurt of course. So I gave into his advice and changed my starting QB Flacco to Warner. Boy, did I pay the price. Although Warner threw over 330 yards, he threw only 1 td and threw for 2 ints. Meanwhile, Flacco threw only 1 td, however threw for over 320 yards WITHOUT turning over the ball. This cost me the difference of 6 solid points. After the conclusion of MNF, my opponent beat me with Felix Jones by a difference of 2 points. OUCH. In conclusion, I came to the philosophy that, 1) Do not overthink your original starter of course, and 2) ALWAYS (ok...maybe not always, but in my opinion, most of the time) go with the more favorable matchup. It is a lesson I'm glad to have learned early in the season. Hopefully, this loss won't bite me in the ass during the playoff stretch.
Friday, September 25, 2009
This ain't koolaid. This could really happen...
We all know the Redskins are pathetic. Not because the players stink, but because their head coach Joe Zorn is absolutely atrocious as a playcaller. Its mindboggling to me that he calls their offensive plays. Its also mindboggling he couldn't score a TD against the Rams. Therefore, I think it is the perfect opportunity for the Lions to finally snap their losing streak against the Skins this weekend and consequently have Zorn fired immediately thereafter. The only shot the Skins have against the Lions is the immaturity of Matthew Stafford. But if Stafford plays well and don't turn the ball over, the Skins are over.
Game Matchups
Cleveland (0-2) vs Baltimore (2-0) @ 1:00pm ET
When Cleveland has the ball:
Facing off against Baltimore's vaunted front seven is going to be tough for the Browns RB's as the Ravens have only allowed 75 rush yards in two games. With Jamal Lewis missing all of this week's practices, Jerome Harrison appears he'll make the start with rookie James Davis serving as his backup. Either way I'd avoid all Cleveland RB's this week. Without room to run, Brady Quinn will have to go to the air to move the chains, which bodes well for Braylon Edwards who had 4 receptions for 86 yards and a TD score in the last meeting against the Ravens. Its hard to recommend any players on a defunct Browns offense, though I do think Braylon makes some plays against the much shorter secondary of the Ravens.
When Baltimore has the ball:
Up against a porous rush defense like the Browns, which gives up an average of 42 fantasy points to opposing RB's so far this season, you gotta start the Ravens RBBC. McGahee and Rice should be able to find holes the size of an abyss this Sunday, so I just don't see Flacco really having to do much but manage the game and hand the ball off to his RB's. With McGahee dominating touches inside the 20, I project him to be a borderline RB2 with a good chance to find the endzone, while Rice whose been getting majority of his carries between the 20's settling on a nice yardage total making him a nice flex play this week.
Washington (1-1) vs Detroit (0-2) @ 1:00pm ET
When Washington has the ball:
From last weeks showing at home vs STL, I gotta say Washington does not look good in any fashion running or throwing the ball. The match up looks good on paper but so did the match up against STL and Washington only put up 9 points. Clinton Portis historically has good rushing games against DET but for some reason can't find pay dirt as shown in his 3 career games against DET he's posted 0 TD's. Jason Campbell on the other hand looks hesitant and unwilling to throw the ball deep instead checking down to the underneath receivers benefiting Cooley and Randle El, but limiting chances for Santana Moss. Hard to recommend anyone besides Cooley and Portis this one though Campbell has a chance to put up some solid stats, but after last weeks performance I'll believe it when I see it.
When Detroit has the ball:
With Stafford at the helm, Detroit will most likely look towards Kevin Smith to carry the load rushing taking some pressure of the rookie signal caller. The other focal point will be 3rd year WR Calvin Johnson, as Stafford continues to look his way when Smith isn't running the rock. Expect a solid game from Johnson as he continues to build chemistry with Stafford, who has shown a propensity to target Johnson regardless of the coverage as Johnson has 20 targets over the past two games compared to just 17 targets combined to all other WR's not named Johnson.
Lunch break is over...so I'll have to get back to the game matchups later
Jacksonville (0-2) vs Houston (1-1) @ 1:00pm ET
When Jacksonville has the ball:
After watching Chris Johnson of the Titans compile 284 all purpose yards and 3 scores on Houston's porous defense, can't help but think MJD will get his chance to shine against a defense that has given up an average of 46.6 fantasy points to opposing RB's. I'm not a big fan of Garrard but he does have a chance to put up some points if they fall behind early, that being said I think Del Rio's best bet is control the clock with MJD and keep Houston's explosive offense on the sideline. If Jacksonville does fall behind and have to go to the air, Garrard will look for Mike Sims-Walker to make a play or two against a suspect Texans secondary with Holt assuming his normal possession type numbers. If your hurting at QB at least Garrard has a good matchup on paper but I would avoid him if I had the choice.
When Houston has the ball:
Houston has been horrible on the ground its 2 first games. In there defense they did play against the Jets and Titans who so far this year have been very stout against the run. I think Slaton will finally post a solid outing as the Texans remain committed to the run to setup the play action and exploit Jacksonville's shortcomings in the secondary. Matt Schaub had a bounce back game last week and lit up the Titans secondary like Yukmouth lighting up a blunt. Schaub has a chance to post good numbers again as another one of Schaub's weapons, Kevin Walter returns from his hamstring injury. I don't think Walter's return will affect Andre Johnson or Owen Daniels number of looks as they'll most likely ease Walter back in since this will be Walter's first time back on the field since his injury occurred late in camp. So start Slaton, Schaub, Johnson, and Daniels with confidence as they rip thru Jacksonville's porous defense.
When Cleveland has the ball:
Facing off against Baltimore's vaunted front seven is going to be tough for the Browns RB's as the Ravens have only allowed 75 rush yards in two games. With Jamal Lewis missing all of this week's practices, Jerome Harrison appears he'll make the start with rookie James Davis serving as his backup. Either way I'd avoid all Cleveland RB's this week. Without room to run, Brady Quinn will have to go to the air to move the chains, which bodes well for Braylon Edwards who had 4 receptions for 86 yards and a TD score in the last meeting against the Ravens. Its hard to recommend any players on a defunct Browns offense, though I do think Braylon makes some plays against the much shorter secondary of the Ravens.
When Baltimore has the ball:
Up against a porous rush defense like the Browns, which gives up an average of 42 fantasy points to opposing RB's so far this season, you gotta start the Ravens RBBC. McGahee and Rice should be able to find holes the size of an abyss this Sunday, so I just don't see Flacco really having to do much but manage the game and hand the ball off to his RB's. With McGahee dominating touches inside the 20, I project him to be a borderline RB2 with a good chance to find the endzone, while Rice whose been getting majority of his carries between the 20's settling on a nice yardage total making him a nice flex play this week.
Washington (1-1) vs Detroit (0-2) @ 1:00pm ET
When Washington has the ball:
From last weeks showing at home vs STL, I gotta say Washington does not look good in any fashion running or throwing the ball. The match up looks good on paper but so did the match up against STL and Washington only put up 9 points. Clinton Portis historically has good rushing games against DET but for some reason can't find pay dirt as shown in his 3 career games against DET he's posted 0 TD's. Jason Campbell on the other hand looks hesitant and unwilling to throw the ball deep instead checking down to the underneath receivers benefiting Cooley and Randle El, but limiting chances for Santana Moss. Hard to recommend anyone besides Cooley and Portis this one though Campbell has a chance to put up some solid stats, but after last weeks performance I'll believe it when I see it.
When Detroit has the ball:
With Stafford at the helm, Detroit will most likely look towards Kevin Smith to carry the load rushing taking some pressure of the rookie signal caller. The other focal point will be 3rd year WR Calvin Johnson, as Stafford continues to look his way when Smith isn't running the rock. Expect a solid game from Johnson as he continues to build chemistry with Stafford, who has shown a propensity to target Johnson regardless of the coverage as Johnson has 20 targets over the past two games compared to just 17 targets combined to all other WR's not named Johnson.
Lunch break is over...so I'll have to get back to the game matchups later
Jacksonville (0-2) vs Houston (1-1) @ 1:00pm ET
When Jacksonville has the ball:
After watching Chris Johnson of the Titans compile 284 all purpose yards and 3 scores on Houston's porous defense, can't help but think MJD will get his chance to shine against a defense that has given up an average of 46.6 fantasy points to opposing RB's. I'm not a big fan of Garrard but he does have a chance to put up some points if they fall behind early, that being said I think Del Rio's best bet is control the clock with MJD and keep Houston's explosive offense on the sideline. If Jacksonville does fall behind and have to go to the air, Garrard will look for Mike Sims-Walker to make a play or two against a suspect Texans secondary with Holt assuming his normal possession type numbers. If your hurting at QB at least Garrard has a good matchup on paper but I would avoid him if I had the choice.
When Houston has the ball:
Houston has been horrible on the ground its 2 first games. In there defense they did play against the Jets and Titans who so far this year have been very stout against the run. I think Slaton will finally post a solid outing as the Texans remain committed to the run to setup the play action and exploit Jacksonville's shortcomings in the secondary. Matt Schaub had a bounce back game last week and lit up the Titans secondary like Yukmouth lighting up a blunt. Schaub has a chance to post good numbers again as another one of Schaub's weapons, Kevin Walter returns from his hamstring injury. I don't think Walter's return will affect Andre Johnson or Owen Daniels number of looks as they'll most likely ease Walter back in since this will be Walter's first time back on the field since his injury occurred late in camp. So start Slaton, Schaub, Johnson, and Daniels with confidence as they rip thru Jacksonville's porous defense.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Jr's Monday Night Miracles
Nothing sweeter than pulling out a victory on MNF and so far Jr has pulled it off two weeks in a row. Managing your lineup can make or break your week in fantasy, Jr made some unconventional plays and they both led to victories, so let me start the breakdown with week 1 of Jr's MNF miracles.
In our ROC Dynasty league week 1, Jr aka Korean Teen Wolf was set to go heads with No-Nato for the season opener. Heading into MNF, score was Jr: 93.58 vs No-Nato: 90.04. Both teams had 1 player going for them in the SD @ OAK game. Jr had the choice of D-Mac who was named starting RB earlier in the week or D. Sproles the fast playmaker and backup to LT. No-Nato on the other hand had Z. Miller, starting TE for the Raiders who is unfortunate enough to have Mr. Russell as his starting QB. Only up 3.54 points, Jr decides to play Sproles over D-Mac on the basis that SD RB's was going to man handle the Raiders front seven and run all over them. Most managers in this case probably go with D-Mac as the safer bet since he'll likely have more touches leading to more scoring opportunities rather than playing the backup who will have his touches limited by the RB ahead of him on the depth chart. Risky play but lets take a look at the results.
Jr
D-Mac: 17 rush attempts, 68 rush yards, 2 rec, 25 rec yards, totaling 19 touches and 21 looks representing 33% of OAK's offensive plays, 8.3 fantasy points
D. Sproles: 9 rush attempts, 23 rush yards, 1 rushing TD, 5 rec, 43 yards, totaling 14 touches and 16 looks representing 27% of SD's offensive plays, 15.1 fantasy points
No-Nato
Z. Miller: 6 rec, 96 rec yards, totaling 6 touches and 6 looks representing 9% of OAK's offensive plays, 12.6 fantasy points
As you can see D-Mac played a big part in the Raiders offensive game plan accounting for 1/3 of Oakland's offensive plays. Turns out Jr is luckier than a leprechaun to have LT roll his ankle sometime in the 1st half thus allowing D. Sproles to play an integral part in the 2nd half and take control of a key drive in the 4th quarter with 18 seconds left that led to his first rushing TD for the season. All honesty without LT rolling his ankle, I think Sproles neither gets the opportunity for the game winning 5 yard rushing TD nor does he see the increase in his looks and touches as LT's and Sproles ended up with the same number of touches and looks. In the end, the Sproles play puts him over the top of No-Nato by a total of 6.04. Which by the way Sproles 5 yard TD gallop accounted for 6.5 points.
For Jr's next MNF miracle, Jr goes head on vs $maSH 4 Ca$H aka Big Spence in week 2 of our super competitive Vulture league. Jr: 81.7 vs $ma$H: 85.54, this time Jr heads into MNF down 3.84. Only thing is that Jr probably shouldn't be down by 3.84 heading into MNF, his decision to bench B. Edwards and play D. Bess puts him in this predicament. Even though Edwards plays for the anemic Browns offense led by the inept Brady Quinn, I just don't see the rationale of playing Bess(Wr3) over Edwards(Wr1) in almost any situation. So lets take a look at the numbers.
Jr
B. Edwards: 6 rec, 92 rec yards, totaling 6 touches and 7 looks representing 13% of Cleveland's offensive plays, 12.2 fantasy points
D. Bess: 3 rec, 29 rec yards, totaling 3 touches and 3 looks representing 4% of Miami's offensive plays, 4.4 fantasy points
As you can see by the numbers, Edwards put up a solid week and was fantasy relevant as his touches and looks accounted for 13% of Cleveland's offensive plays. Edwards 92 yards for the day accounted for 46% of Cleveland's total net yardage. While Bess was barely on the field and put up a very pedestrian stat line of 3 catches for 29 yards. Bess didn't register his first catch till late into the 2nd quarter with 1:14 left to go, but he did have a crucial reception late into the game in the 4th quarter with 56 seconds left on 2nd and 19 on Miami's own 35 for a 18 yard gain. That catch gave Jr 2.3 points edging $ma$H by a overall margin of .56. Once again in the waning seconds, Jr was able to pull a rabbit out his hat with one of his unconventional plays and pull out the W. Makes me think Jr has the luck of Irish going for him, as his two unconventional decisions led him to fantasy gold on MNF again. Sometimes its just better to be lucky...
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